The Risks of Overstating One’s Case
“There’s no reason why anyone should buy anything but an electric car now.”
That’s what my neighbor said to me after he recently bought a Chevy Bolt.
“That’s a bit hyperbolic,” I said.
Unfortunately, that’s where the conversation ended because he was on his way out, and I’ve found myself less and less interested in discussing topics in which I perceive the other person to be so zealous in their opinion that they are closed to actually listening to mine.
The thing is, I’m not even that far off in my opinion compared to his. I think for many, many people, electric vehicles (EVs) would serve their everyday needs as well as a traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle would. The price point has become competitive for those not shopping at the very bottom of the market, and the range more than exceeds most drivers’ needs.
Where he lost me was the no-room-for-debate, absolutism of his statement. I can think of plenty of reasons why someone wouldn’t want an EV.
💰 Purchase price most certainly is a factor for some.
🛣️ There are those who regularly need a longer-range capability without the burden of extended stops to power up.
🔌 Charging stations are anything but ubiquitous, creating a major inconvenience for some.
🌨️ Not every location is equally conducive to EVs due to the stress the local climate puts on the battery.
🛻 Some people need the hauling capacity of a real pick-up truck. And no, neither the Rivian nor the Tesla Cybertruck counts.
🤡 Finally, Elon Musk is the face of the electric vehicle market, and he is not universally popular.
This example is indicative of a problem with the discussion on climate change and the renewable energy transition: when you overstate your case, you risk a backlash that inhibits progress.. You move from problem-solving into advocacy. Problem solving is objective; advocacy is personal.
Further, overstating contributes to two problems that affect decision making.
The first is Framing Bias: the fact that two parties can have access to the same data and draw different conclusions. This problem often occurs when looking at a subset of the data and building a story around that limited data.
The second is Confirmation Bias: the tendency to justify the commitments by using data that agrees with their point of view and ignoring data that does not agree.
By overstating, my neighbor exhibited Framing Bias by leaving out the data that represents reasons why EVs may not be right for everyone. I exhibited Confirmation Bias by not going back to him to ask what led him to make such a statement.
Both of these biases got in the way of solving the problem of coming to a shared understanding of each other’s point of view.
When leadership teams display this sort of behavior, it is very difficult to align on the strategic obstacles a company faces, not to mention to align on the direction a company should go. At Tilt Global, we helps teams surface these types of obstacles to effective decision making.