What happens when the unforeseen gets in the way of climate goals?
The Great East Japan Earthquake struck the northeast coast of Honshu Island on March 11, 2011. The resulting catastrophic failure at the Fukushima Daiichi Electrical Power Station caused Japan to shut down its entire fleet of 54 nuclear reactors. In March 2011, nuclear power accounted for approximately 30% of Japan’s total electricity generation. By May of the following year, that percentage had dropped to essentially zero.
Before the Fukushima accident, Japan had planned by 2030 to generate 50% of its electricity from nuclear power. Afterwards, Japan brought older oil-fired power plants back on line, began deploying large arrays of diesel generator sets, and continued building coal-fired power plants; it is still building coal plants. The current administration anticipates restarting much of Japan’s nuclear reactor fleet to stabilize energy supply.
In 2010, around 60% of Japan’s power was generated using fossil fuels. This percentage increased to 88% in 2012, and from that peak, began leveling off. As of 2019, 72% of Japan’s power was from fossil fuels. Some good news in the period from 2010 to now: because of continued power use efficiency gains, energy demand continues to slow even as the economy of Japan grows modestly; and the cost of renewable energy generation continues to decline, so that renewable sources now are 19% of Japan’s energy mix.
As the energy mix in Japan continues to evolve, energy executives are planning through 2050 for a national energy transition. Things will happen on the road to 2050: unforeseeable events like Fukushima, as well as changes in government policy, against a background of ongoing innovation and technological change in the energy industry. Executives must respond to changing conditions by making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and making course changes before all the data are in. They must act in conditions of complexity and uncertainty rather than waiting for conditions to become clear and predictable. Executives can develop required skills through practice in a safe environment.
Tilt Global Decisions provides cadres of executives with a three-day Decision Making Lab Experience that does not ignore complexity, or attempt to oversimplify it. In a safe, realistic, simulated environment, the DML Experience gives executives the opportunity to apply an analytical framework and tools to acknowledge complexity and act in spite of it. Contact us and we can discuss how Tilt Global can change how your business embraces uncertainty and reacts to the unexpected.